- The methodology underlying the forecasts presented on this website is described in detail in our working paper. It is also available at NBER Working Paper 27248 and CEPR Working Paper 14790. A blog post is available here.
- Here are the replication files that illustrate our method using the 04/18/2020 sample.
- The forecasts are based on a dynamic panel data model. At the core of our model is a specification that assumes that the growth rate of active infections can be represented by autoregressive fluctuations around a downward sloping deterministic trend function with a break.
- The data set used to generate the forecasts is obtained from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.
Click on a link in the grid below to see graphs for a specific forecast origin and horizon.